Page 3 - VP-APRIL 2016
P. 3
Monthly Market Besides, dovish comments Market Outlook: April
Roundup from the US Federal Reserve
chairman Janet Yellen Going ahead, RBI’s monetary policy will be the
Indian equity markets indicated lessened chances of major trigger for Indian equity markets. Further,
started the month of March a US rate hike. markets will closely watch the implementation of
on a jubilant note delivering The month finally ended key legislations such as GST bill and bankruptcy
robust returns above 10%. with upward bias as S&P BSE law, Q4FY16 corporate earnings and state elections
Positive domestic and macro Sensex delivered positive for further direction. On the global front, European
economic data coupled return of 10.17% to settle at Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US FOMC meeting
with strong FII inflows lead 25341.86 and Nifty 50 gained will be the key events to watch for. We recommend
to bullish sentiment in the 10.75% ending the month at investors to ignore short-term volatility and invest
markets. Further, cut in 7738.40. for long term in fundamentally strong companies.
interest rates on small savings On the institutional side,
schemes fueled expectation of foreign institutional investors Technical Outlook: April
a reduction in lending rates (FIIs) bought Rs 21,142.92
by bank. The major trigger crore worth of equities during The current price action on the monthly chart
for the markets remained the month while domestic has formed a strong bull candle which has closed
expectation of rate cut by RBI mutual fund houses sold Rs above the median line of the channel. However,
on account of union budget's 8,057.70 crore in March 2016. the monthly trend is still down and would
fiscal prudence measures reverse only if monthly trades and closes above
and low inflation numbers. 8100 level. In coming month if Nifty trades and
closes above 7878 level then it is likely to test
Economic Data Wrap Up – March 8094 – 8311 – 8564 levels. However, if Nifty trades
and closes below 7598 level then it can test 7382 –
¡ India's Feb Nikkei in Jan. 7165 – 6913 levels.
manufacturing PMI Broadly, we are of the opinion that the monthly
unchanged at 51.1 MoM. ¡ India’s Feb FDI inflows trend is still down, however if Nifty trades
rose to $6.34 bln from and closes above 8100 level then monthly
¡ India’s Feb Nikkei $5.90 bln YoY. down trend would reverse and uptrend would
Services PMI fell to 51.4 resume. Hence, 8100 level on closing basis
from 54.3 in Jan. ¡ India’s Feb trade deficit remains make or break level going forward.
fell to $6.54 bln vs $7.64 However, we maintain our stance that stock
¡ India’s Jan IIP growth at bln in Jan. specific activity is likely to continue.
(-) 1.5% from (-) 1.3% in
Dec. ¡ India’s Oct-Dec current 3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ APRIL 2016
account deficit (CAD)
¡ India’s Feb CPI inflation narrowed to to $7.1 bln
rose to 5.18% from 5.69% or 1.3% of GDP from
in Jan. $7.7 bln or 1.5% of GDP
QoQ.
¡ India’s Feb WPI inflation
at (-) 0.91% vs (-) 0.90%
