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Monthly Market Roundup Market Outlook: December
Going ahead, Indian equity markets will remain
Indian equity markets differs from Moody’s, holds highly volatile this month ahead of three high
witnessed a roller coaster India rating at BBB, with impact events i.e. RBI monetary policy, Gujarat
ride in November month. a stable outlook. On the assembly election results and the US Fed interest
Markets started the month F&O expiry day benchmark rate decision. The Gujarat assembly elections will be
on optimistic note as World indices logged their biggest held in two phases on December 9 and 14. The RBI’s
Bank report has showed single-day fall in two monetary policy will be announced on December 6
India's rank in ease of doing months, while investors also while the Gujarat election results will be declared on
business jumped 30 places cut down their positions December 18. The outcome of the assembly elections
to 100 among 190 countries. ahead of the GDP data. will set the tone for the market. Further, US FOMC
Market participants were The month finally ended meeting, BOE monetary policy, ECB monetary
cautious due to concerns with downward bias as policy, BOJ monetary policy, macroeconomic data,
over the impact of high S&P BSE Sensex delivered FIIs and DIIs trend, currency movement and crude
crude oil prices on the fiscal negative returns of 0.19% oil price movement are the key factors to watch out
deficit and an increase in to settle at 33149.35 and for. Investors should adopt buy on dips strategy and
retail inflation also poured Nifty50 lost 1.05% ending invest in fundamentally strong companies with long
cold water on expectations the month at 10226.55. term perspective.
of further rate cuts by the On the institutional side,
RBI. Further, Moody’s foreign institutional Nifty Technical Outlook: December
lifted equity markets mood investors (FIIs) bought
in the second half of the Rs 19,727.80 crore worth of Nifty
month. Moody’s upgraded equities during the month
India’s credit rating from while domestic mutual On the monthly chart, after strong bull candle we
Baa3 to Baa2, and changed fund houses continued are observing a spinning top candlestick pattern
the outlook from stable their buying spree with net which suggests a consolidation of previous rise. In
to positive. It’s the first purchases of Rs 10,668.68 the coming month if Nifty trades and closes above
upgrade of India’s rating crore in November 2017. 10305 levels then it is likely to test 10421 – 10557 –
in 14 years. However, S&P 10671 levels. However, if Nifty trades and closes
below 10147 level then it can test 10032 – 9916 –
Economic Data Wrap Up – November 9781 levels.
Broadly, we are of the opinion that for current
¡ India's Oct Nikkei ¡ India’s Oct trade deficit month 10032 is crucial support level any monthly
manufacturing PMI fell to rose to $14.02 bln from close below 10032 would derailed the monthly
50.3 from 51.2 in Sep. $11.13 bln YoY. uptrend. Hence as long as Nifty holds 10032
levels there is fair chance that Nifty may retest
¡ India’s Oct Nikkei services ¡ India’s Oct core all time high of 10490 or even extend its gains to
PMI rose to 51.7 from 50.7 in sector growth at 4.7% 10600 levels in couple of months.
Sep. unchanged from Sep.
¡ India’s Sep IIP growth fell to ¡ India’s Apr-Oct fiscal
3.8% from 4.5% in Aug. deficit rose to Rs 5.25 trln
vs Rs 4.23 trln YoY.
¡ India’s Oct CPI inflation rose
to 3.58% from 3.28% in Sep. ¡ India’s Jul-Sep GDP
growth rose to 6.3% from
¡ India’s Oct WPI inflation rose 5.7% QoQ.
to 3.59% from 2.60% in Sep.
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ dECembER 2017
