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Monthly Market Roundup Market Outlook: October
Going ahead, Indian equity markets will remain
Indian equity markets markets crashed on volatile this month due to ongoing geopolitical
started the September the back of likely fiscal tensions between the US and North Korea. Investors
month on a weak note stimulus, which could will closely watch developments in North Korea.
due to geopolitical increase the fiscal deficit. The recent declines in the stock market, which were
worries between US and The month finally ended triggered by geopolitical tensions, aggravated on
North Korea but in the with downward bias worries about a further delay in corporate earnings
latter half of the month as S&P BSE Sensex revival. Apart from this, RBI monetary policy,
Nifty touched a record delivered negative Q2FY18 corporate earnings, US FOMC meeting
high of 10,178.95 on returns of 1.41% to settle minutes, ECB monetary policy, BOJ monetary Policy,
September 19. However, at 31283.72 and Nifty50 FIIs trend, currency movement and crude oil price
the sell-off in the last lost 1.30% ending the movement will be the major factors to watch out
week of the month wiped month at 9788.60. for. Investors should invest in fundamentally sound
out those gains and On the institutional side, companies with long term horizon.
the benchmark indices foreign institutional
ended with loss on likely investors (FIIs) sold Nifty Technical Outlook: October
another hydrogen bomb Rs 11,392.27 crore worth
test by North Korea, S&P of equities during the Nifty
downgraded China's month while domestic
credit rating and the mutual fund houses On the monthly chart, we are observing two consecutive
US Federal Reserve continued their buying narrow body formations which resemble a Spinning
announced its plan to spree with net purchases top candlestick pattern. The said candlestick pattern
start reducing its balance of Rs 15,825.84 crore in suggests that the prior up trend is losing breath. In the
sheet in October and September 2017. coming month if Nifty trades and closes above 9884
hinted one more rate hike level then it is likely to test 10027 – 10171 – 10338 levels.
in December. Further However, if Nifty trades and closes below 9692 level
then it can test 9549 – 9406 – 9239 levels.
Economic Data Wrap Up – September Broadly, we are of the opinion that for current month
9540 level remains make or break level. Hence, one
¡ India's Aug Nikkei ¡ India’s Aug WPI can hold their long positions as long as Nifty holds the
manufacturing PMI rose to inflation rose to 3.24% mentioned level.
51.2 from 47.9 in Jul. from 1.88% in Jul.
¡ India’s Aug Nikkei Services ¡ India’s Aug trade deficit
PMI fell to 47.5 from 45.9 in rose to $11.64 bln from
Jul. $7.71 bln YoY.
¡ India’s Jul IIP growth rose to ¡ India’s Aug fiscal deficit
1.2% from (-) 0.2% in Jun. rose to Rs 201 bln from
Rs 143 bln YoY.
¡ India’s Aug CPI inflation rose
to 3.36% from 2.36% in Jul.
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ OCTOBER 2017
