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Monthly Market Roundup Market Outlook: November
Indian equity markets which suggests interest Going ahead, Indian equity markets will remain
started the month of rate hike in December. Any highly volatile this month due to US Fed’s meeting
October on a dull note and rate hike will depend on on interest rate decision, US Presidential elections
traded volatile throughout the US economic condition and geopolitical tensions between India and
the month due to escalating and other macroeconomic Pakistan. Fluctuations in the dollar-rupee exchange
tensions between India and factors. rates, macroeconomic events, movement in crude
Pakistan. The Reserve Bank oil prices, foreign fund inflow, and ongoing Q2FY17
of India (RBI) announced The month finally ended corporate earnings will be keenly watched by
cut in the repo rate by with upward bias as S&P investors. We recommend investors to invest in
0.25 bps in its fourth bi- BSE Sensex delivering fundamentally sound companies for long term
monthly monetary policy positive return of 0.23% perspective.
review which was already to settle at 27930.21 and
expected by the market Nifty 50 gained 0.17% Nifty Technical Outlook: November
participants. The focus on ending the month at 8625.70.
economic growth by the Nifty
RBI shows that there are On the institutional side,
chances of further rate cuts foreign institutional On the monthly chart we are observing three
in upcoming monetary investors (FIIs) sold narrow range body formations which suggest
policies. The markets Rs 4,306.26 crore worth of indecisiveness prevailing at current level. In the
sentiments were dampened equities during the month coming month if Nifty trades and closes above
mainly in reaction to the while domestic mutual fund 8686 level then it is likely to test 8774 – 8861 –
US Fed meeting minutes houses bought Rs 8,105.90 8964 levels. However, if Nifty trades and closes
crore in October 2016. below 8565 level then it can test 8477 – 8389 –
8287 levels.
Economic Data Wrap Up – October We maintain our stance that 8500 is a make or
break level, any close below 8500 level would
¡ India's Sep Nikkei ¡ India’s Sep WPI intensify the selling pressure. In such scenario
manufacturing PMI fell to inflation fell to 3.57% Nifty may test the above mentioned support
52.1 from 52.6 in Aug. from 3.74% in Aug. levels. Hence, one should hold their long position
as long as Nifty holds 8500 on closing basis.
¡ India’s Sep Nikkei Services ¡ India’s Sep trade deficit However, stock specific activity in midcap is
PMI fell to 52 from 54.7 in fell to $8.34 bln from likely to continue ahead.
Aug. $10.17 bln YoY.
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ NOVEMBER 2016
¡ India’s Aug IIP growth fell ¡ India’s Sep core sector
to -0.7% from -2.5% in Jul. growth rose to 5% from
3.2% in Aug.
¡ India’s Sep CPI inflation fell
to 4.31% from 5.05% in Aug.
