Page 3 - Value_Plus_SEPT_2017

Monthly Market Roundup
Indian equity markets
started the August month
on pessimistic note and
traded under pressure
due to geopolitical
tensions between the
US and North Korea.
Market sentiments also
turned negative after the
finance ministry said in
its mid-year economic
survey that there are
downside risks to the
growth forecast of 6.75-
7.5% for FY18, Doklam
standoff between India
& China, SEBI's order to
ban trading in 331 shell
companies. However,
the market continued
to get healthy support
from DII’s buying though
FII’s were net sellers due
to geopolitical worries.
DII’s are hopeful of good
Economic Data Wrap Up – August
¡ India's July Nikkei
manufacturing PMI fell to
47.9 from 50.9 in June.
¡ India’s July Nikkei
Services PMI fell to 45.9
from 53.1 in Jun.
¡ India’s June IIP growth
fell to (-)0.1% from 1.7% in
May.
¡ India’s July CPI inflation
rose to 2.36% from 1.46%
in June.
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ SEPTEMBER 2017
quarterly earnings and
economic recovery.
The month finally ended
with downward bias
as S&P BSE Sensex
delivered negative
returns of 2.41% to settle
at 31730.49 and Nifty50
lost 1.58% ending the
month at 9917.90.
On the institutional side,
foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) sold
Rs 12,769.68 crore worth
of equities during the
month while domestic
mutual fund houses
continued their buying
spree with net purchases
of Rs 17,221.93 crore in
August 2017.
¡ India’s July WPI inflation
rose to 1.88% from 0.90%
in June.
¡ India’s July trade deficit
rose to $11.45 bln from
$7.76 bln YoY.
¡ India’s July core sector
growth fell to 2.4% from
0.8% in June.
¡ India’s Apr-Jun GDP
growth fell to 5.7% from
6.1% QoQ.
Market Outlook: September
Going ahead, Indian equity markets are expected
to remain volatile this month due to geopolitical
tensions between the US and North Korea. The
tug of war between the bulls and the bears could
continue this month as well. Apart from geopolitical
tensions, on the economic data front, US FOMC
meeting, Europe monetary policy, Bank of Japan
monetary policy, macroeconomic data, progress
of monsoon rains, trend in global markets, FPI’s &
DII’s inflows, rupee movement and crude oil price
movement will be watched for further direction.
Investors should adopt buy-on-dips strategy to
accumulate stocks at attractive valuations.
Nifty Technical Outlook: September
NNiftiyfty
On the monthly chart, we are observing a bear candle
with narrow body formation which indicates a pause
of current up move. In the coming month if Nifty
trades and closes above 10006 levels then it is likely
to test 10138 – 10270 – 10424 levels. However, if Nifty
trades and closes below 9829 level then it can test
9697 – 9565 – 9411 levels.
Broadly, we are of the opinion that for current month
as long as Nifty holds 9680 on daily closing basis
there is high probability that Nifty may test the
10300 - 10500 in couple of months.