Page 7 - Value_Plus_SEPT_2017

Dhaniya: Bottom fishers are invited!

Dhaniya October BUY

CMP: Rs 5070 (As on 01st Sep 2017) Dhaniya

Buy at CMP: Rs 5070

Targets: Rs 5725-6180

Stop loss: < Rs 4650 or a potential extended ‘X’ wave. Momentum indicators
are favoring an extended ‘X’ wave as the positivity in
Dhaniya is one of the most volatile agro commodities terms of volume has already begun. Moreover, current
traded on Indian bourses. India is the leading producer, price range of Dhaniya is so attractive; it calls for to try
contributing 80% of the world production which is around hands at bottom fishing! From fundamental view, we can
3 lakh MT per annum. In India, a large chunk of the assert that the demand will pick up strongly in coming
crop comes from Rajasthan & MP, making prices highly months and there will not be any carryover stock left
speculative as exports are limited to 5 to 10 percent only for next sowing season starting from October. Basically,
due to a higher consumption at local level. we may see a considerably good shortage till harvesting
reaches its peak in February-April period.
In May 2015, Dhaniya scored an all time high of around
Rs 13400 per quintal. In the next two years prices of the We recommend buying in Dhaniya October contract at
rounded seed spice declined heavily and what we can CMP Rs 5070 for targets in the range of Rs 5725-6180.
see on monthly chart is a lower low pattern with almost Maintain stop loss below Rs 4650.
every candlestick. From Rs 13400 per quintal in May 2015,
Dhaniya prices tumbled to as low as Rs 4700 per quintal in
August 2017, a fall of more than 65 percent! On monthly
chart, we can spot an irregular ABC correction pattern
starting from May 2015 that converted into a full-fledged
bearish trend in later months. If we take a look at Fibonacci
study marked support & resistance levels then it seems
that we may see a considerable bounce back in prices from
here. The expected rise may either shape-up a fourth wave

7 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ SEPTEMBER 2017