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Monthly Market by 20 basis points to negative data, next batch of Q3FY16 corporate earnings,
0.1% which is expected to Union Budget, global markets movement, FII’s
Roundup stimulate optimism for global and DII’s investment, the movement of rupee
growth. against the dollar and crude oil price movement
The New Year commenced The month finally ended with will decide the stock market’s direction during
with carnage on Dalal Street downward bias as S&P BSE the month. Now, the all eyes will be on the
as benchmark indices declined Sensex delivered negative return Union Budget which is scheduled on 29th
by almost 5% in January 2016. of 4.77% to settle at 24870.69 and February and it will be the major trigger for
The main cause of sharp selloff Nifty 50 lost 4.82% ending the Indian equity markets. We recommend long-
during the month was China’s month at 7563.55. term investors should focus only on investing
Yuan devaluation, geo-political On the institutional side, foreign in fundamentally strong companies.
tensions in the Middle East, institutional investors (FIIs)
correction in crude oil prices and sold Rs 11,126.44 crore worth of Technical Outlook: February
weak global markets. However, equities during the month while
Indian equity markets saw domestic mutual fund houses The current price action on the monthly
a strong recovery in the last continued their buying spree chart has formed a bearish candlestick
week of the month triggered with net purchases of Rs 6,720.60 pattern which suggests that the monthly
by rebound in crude oil prices, crore in January 2016. trend still remains down. In coming month
Bank of Japan's negative interest if Nifty trades and close above 7701 level
rate policy and China's central Market Outlook: February then it is likely to test 7914 – 8127 – 8376
bank decision to pump in an levels. However, if Nifty trades and close
additional 100 bn yuan ($15.21 Indian equity markets will below 7426 level then it can test 7213 – 6999
bn) into the financial system remain volatile in February – 6751 levels.
fuelled a rally in global markets. ahead of the most eventful Broadly, we are of the opinion that 7200
Bank of Japan's surprise move to month. The outcome of RBI's remains a make or break level going
cut its benchmark interest rate policy review, macroeconomic forward. As long as Nifty holds this level
there is a possibility that this pull back
Economic Data Wrap Up – January rally may test the above mentioned levels.
¡ India's Dec Nikkei 5.61% from 5.41% in Nov. 3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ FEBRUARY 2016
manufacturing PMI fell to
49.1 from 50.3 in Nov. ¡ India’s Dec WPI inflation
rose to a 12-month high of
¡ India’s Dec Nikkei (-) 0.73% from (-) 1.99% in
Services PMI rose to 53.6 Nov.
from 50.1 in Nov.
¡ India’s Nov FDI inflows
¡ India’s Nov IIP growth fell rose to $3.98 bln from $2.70
to a four-month low of (-) bln YoY.
3.2% from 9.8% in Oct.
¡ India’s Dec trade deficit
¡ India’s Dec CPI inflation widened to $11.66 bln vs
rose to a 15-month high of $9.78 bln in Nov.
