Page 3 - VP-MARCH 2016 final8

Monthly Market global adversities. The Market Outlook: March
Roundup Budget unveiled a big focus
on revival of rural demand With the budget event behind us, Indian equity
Indian equity markets were through special focus on the markets will closely watch the implementation of
badly butchered in the month agricultural sector that should measures announced in Union Budget. All eyes
of February weighed down strive to increase agricultural will now be glued at RBI governor Raghuram
by selloff in global markets, productivity. Rajan’s move as reduction in interest rates is highly
disappointing corporate The month finally ended with anticipated after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley
earnings and no rate change downward bias as S&P BSE has stuck to the path of fiscal consolidation by
by RBI. However, the last Sensex delivered negative maintaining fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP for
week of the month turned return of 7.51% to settle at FY16-17. On the global front, European Central Bank
out to be most important for 23002.00 and Nifty 50 lost (ECB) meeting, Bank of England’s (BOE) monetary
Indian equity markets with 7.62% ending the month at policy and US FOMC meeting will be major events
big bang events like Railway 6987.05. to watch for. Further, macro economic data, trend
Budget and Union Budget On the institutional side, in global markets, FII’s investments, crude oil price
being tabled in the Parliament foreign institutional investors movement and rupee’s movement against dollar
session. (FIIs) sold Rs 5,521.39 crore will set the tone for domestic equity markets. We
Finance Minister, Mr Arun worth of equities during the recommend investors to invest in stocks with strong
Jaitley though did not deliver month while domestic mutual fundamentals for long term.
a "Big Bang - Make or Break fund houses continued
Budget" but provided a their buying spree with net Technical Outlook: March
steady course for steering purchases of Rs 4,929.90 crore
the economy on the path in February 2016. The current price action on the monthly chart
of fiscal prudence despite has formed a strong bear candle which suggests
that the monthly trend is still down. In coming
Economic Data Wrap Up – February month if Nifty trades and close above 7131 level
then it is likely to test 7358 – 7584 – 7847 levels.
¡ India's Jan Nikkei ¡ India’s Jan WPI inflation However, if Nifty trades and close below 6842
manufacturing PMI rose at (-) 0.90% vs (-) 0.73% level then it can test 6616 – 6390 – 6127 levels.
to 51.1 from 49.1 in Dec. in Dec. Since, the monthly trend is down any pull back
rallies are likely to witness selling pressure.
¡ India’s Jan Nikkei ¡ India’s Dec FDI inflows Hence any pull back rally in the range of 7358 –
Services PMI rose to 54.3 rose to $6.07 bln from 7584 levels is likely to witness selling pressure.
from 53.6 in Dec. $3.32 bln YoY.
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ MARCH 2016
¡ India’s Dec IIP growth at ¡ India’s Jan trade deficit
(-) 1.3% from (-) 3.4% in fell to $7.64 bln vs $11.66
Nov. bln in Dec.

¡ India’s Jan CPI inflation ¡ India Oct-Dec GDP
rose to 5.69% from 5.61% growth slowed to 7.3%
in Dec. from 7.7% QoQ.