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2017: One, the fundamentals of level since fuel prices will see
Another US economy remained another upside by at least five
milestone on a positive track in percent but in long term it will
for 2016 but the Indian economy too be beneficial for our economy.
USD-INR: performed strongly in first ten The next big event is the
Breaking months on the back of a stable union budget in February. It
the old growth amid successful ‘make is highly expected to bring
territory? in India’ call. This kept Dollar’s major personal tax reform
gain under check and we can see amid a blueprint of plans to
2016 proved to be a year of low that a major part of Dollar’s gain roll out GST from 1st April.
momentum and small range has come in last two months If tax reforms fit in line
trading in Indian currency of demonetization which is with public and corporate
market. The most popular expected to have a temporary expectations then we may
currency pair, USD-INR, impact on our economy, say for see a short term appreciation
however is on the verge of another quarter. in INR. However, the
posting a three percent plus Two, the big revival plans of appreciation is not likely to
gain but if we measure the Indian government surely needs sustain in long run due to
range from bottom to top then large spending on infrastructure major revival plans with full
it stops at a gap of just Rs 3, i.e. which we have seen growing focus on increasing exports.
to say the yearly low which is day by day in last two and a So, 2017 can be another
marked around Rs 66 is only half years. Plans like ‘make milestone like 2013 when INR
behind by Rs 3 from the yearly in India’ actually needs stable broke out into a new territory
top which is hovering around but a slightly devalued INR of 60’s. This year it may break
Rs 69. This is the lowest top- so that the exports become into 70’s. Get ready!
bottom range seen after 2010. fruitful. The India government On technical charts too,
This comes as a crucial point is working hard to boost exports a major breakout above
in analyzing USD-INR and has and the move has definitely psychological resistance
two aspects. affected INR. If reports are to be seems to be on the cards.
believed, the value of one USD Any breakout above Rs 69 on
should be around Rs 72 if India monthly chart may take USD
has to become the next universal towards a range of Rs 71-72.
manufacturing hub. Clearly, as All in all, long term traders
the plans like ‘make in India’ and exporters can look to buy
will see progress in coming USD-INR on any breakout
days, we will see a depreciating above Rs 69 OR on dips till
INR till the above mentioned Rs 65 for a yearly target in
levels. However, this will, in the range of Rs 71-72.
turn, increase inflation at local
11 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ JANUARY 2017
