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What will stop the Jeera Juggernaut? Jeera

CMP: `19100 (As on 02nd May, 2017) now into a negative crossover as well which further
strengthens our bearish view. This early bird view
Sell on rise: `19250-19270 would be incomplete if we didn’t talk about the
core fundamentals which have been affected by
Targets: `17900-16700 the recent geopolitical developments. The price
volatility seen in the backdrop of Syria war is over
Stop loss: > `20100 now as a much bigger factor in the form of India’s
bumper crop is governing the market. Syria is
Jeera has maintained its position of ‘the best definitely a leading producer BUT it nowhere comes
performing agro commodity of 2016’ in 2017 as closer to even one third of total production. So, as of
well. The aromatic spice which is also known for now India’s huge produce and export demand are
its therapeutic characteristics, ascended to fresh the factors to be watched out for.
yearly highs in mid April. However, prices were still We recommend selling in Jeera June contract on
slightly behind the all-time high marked in July last rise to Rs 19250-19270 for targets in the range of
year. The range bound to negative price movement Rs 17900-16700. Maintain stop loss above Rs 20100.
seen in last couple of weeks is indicating a reversal
from here. Let’s explore the possibilities.

On daily chart, a double-top formation is seen as
Jeera struggles to get above the yearly high formed
few days back. A corrective wave structure (ABC)
is also shaping up BUT it seems that it may have a
mid to long term impact instead of just a short term
run. Coupled with these, we can see momentum
indicators like MACD & RSI clearly favoring bears
as both of them have a long standing negative
divergence. More importantly, both indicators are

6 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ MAY 2017