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Monthly Market Roundup Market Outlook: October
Indian equity markets investor sentiments. Going ahead, Indian equity markets will be highly
started the month of influenced by government officials and ministers'
September with a positive The month finally ended comments on geopolitical tensions between India
bias but were unable to with downward bias as and Pakistan. The Reserve Bank of India's monetary
sustain gains at higher S&P BSE Sensex delivering policy statement on Oct 4 will be keenly watched by
levels. The markets were negative return of 2.06% investors. Fluctuations in the dollar-rupee exchange
cautious during the month to settle at 27865.96 and rates, macroeconomic events, movement in crude
awaiting US Federal Nifty 50 losing 1.99% oil prices, foreign fund inflow, upcoming Q2FY17
Reserve meeting. The ending the month at corporate earnings and US Fed statements for
US Fed in its September 8611.15. further rate hike are also likely to affect the equity
meeting left interest rates markets. We suggest investors to adopt buy on
unchanged indicating On the institutional side, dips strategy and invest in fundamentally sound
a possibility of a rate foreign institutional companies at lower levels.
hike in December if the investors (FIIs) bought
job market continued to Rs 10,443.25 crore worth of Nifty Technical Outlook: October
improve. The markets fell equities during the month
sharply towards the end while domestic mutual Nifty
of the month after tensions fund houses bought
escalated between India Rs 2,714.20 crore in The current price action on the monthly chart
and Pakistan hurting September 2016. has formed a spinning top which gives small
clue that the uptrend is losing breath. Hence a
Economic Data Wrap Up – September consolidation or a correction cannot be ruled out.
In the coming month if Nifty trades and closes
¡ India's Aug Nikkei ¡ India’s Aug WPI above 8692 level then it is likely to test 8812 –
manufacturing PMI rose to inflation rose to 3.74% 8933 – 9074 levels. However, if Nifty trades and
52.6 from 51.8 in Jul. from 3.55% in Jul. closes below 8530 level then it can test 8409 –
8289 – 8148 levels.
¡ India’s Aug Nikkei ¡ India’s Aug trade Broadly, we are of the opinion that 8500 is a make
Services PMI rose to 54.7 deficit fell to $7.67 bln or break level, any close below 8500 level would
from 51.9 in Jul. from $12.40 bln YoY. intensify the selling pressure. In such scenario
Nifty may test the above mentioned support
¡ India’s July IIP growth fell ¡ India’s July core sector levels. Hence, one should hold their long position
to -2.4% from 2.1% in Jun. growth unchanged at as long as Nifty holds 8500 on closing basis.
3.2% MoM. However, stock specific activity in midcap is
¡ India’s Aug CPI inflation likely to continue ahead.
fell to 5.05% from 6.07% in
Jul. 3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ OCTOBER 2016
