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Outl k Market Outlook : March
Monthly Market Roundup For the month ahead, only a strong Q3 financial
performance for most of the companies and likely
Benchmarks indices Sensex and Nifty fell 4.8 per cent each continuation of the same in next few quarterscan
in February and foreign investors pulled Rs 12,500 crore support the current valuation of key market indices.
out of Indian equity markets in February. Global equities However, Indian markets are likely to remain in
sell off was triggered by a spike in US bond yields and consolidation phase.FIIs and DIIs trend, bond yield and
global crude oil prices trading above US$ 60 a barrel. The crude oil price movement are the key factors to watch
February sell-off is the worst ever in terms of outflows by out for. Investors should invest in fundamentally strong
foreign investors. companies with long term perspective only on dips.
Earlier, domestic indices had declined after the Union Nifty Technical Outlook: March
government announced re-introduction of long-term
capital gains (LTCG) tax on capital gains on equities Nifty
exceeding Rs 1 lakh at 10% in Budget 2018-19.
The current price action on the monthly chart has formed
During the month banking sector stocks witnessed the a bearish Engulfing pattern. The bearish implication of
worst hit amidst all other sectors. The fall in Nifty PSU the said pattern will get activated once Nifty trades and
Bank index was sharp, underperforming even the headline close below 10276 level.
NSE Bank index because of unveiling PNB Fraud case,
challenges from rising NPAs, tightening of regulatory In current month Nifty has resistance at 10897 – 11143
norms, higher credit costs and higher provisioning norms. - 11429 levels whereas on the downside, 10088 – 9843
- 9557 levels. In coming month if Nifty trades above
The government’s revenue from the Goods and Services 10652 then it is likely to test 10897 – 11143 - 11429 levels.
Tax remained stable in January, 2018. Total collections for However, if Nifty trades below 10333 then it is likely to
the month stood at Rs 86,318 crore as compared to Rs 86,703 test 10088 – 9843 - 9557 levels.
crore collected in December, 2017.
Broadly, looking at the bearish engulfing pattern on
GDP growth in India in 3QFY18 was recorded at 7.2% as the monthly chart we advise traders to adopt cautious
compared to 6.5% in2Q Fy18, making India fastest growing approach towards the markets. The said pattern
economy in the world. would get negated only if nifty trades and close above
11171.55 level.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve
Bank of India decided to keep the policy repo rate under Economic Data Wrap Up – February
the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6%.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains ¡ India's Jan Nikkei ¡ India’s Jan CPI
at 5.75%. manufacturing PMI fell inflation fell to 5.07%
to 52.4 from 54.7 in Dec. from 5.21% in Dec.
The Ministry of Housing & Urban Affairs has approved
the construction of 1,86,777 more affordable houses for the ¡ India’s Jan Nikkei ¡ India’s Jan WPI
benefit of urban poor under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana services PMI rose to 51.7 inflation fell to 2.84%
(Urban) with an investment of Rs 11,169 crore with Central from 50.9 in Dec. from 3.58% in Dec.
assistance of Rs 2,797 crore.
¡ India’s Dec IIP growth ¡ India’s Jan trade deficit
3 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ march 2018 fell to 7.1% from 8.8% in rose to $16.30 bln from
Nov. $9.90 bln YoY.
