Page 5 - Value Plus Jan 2016
P. 5
MARKET
OUTLOOK
WAY Within the infrastructure The 4% correction in Nifty
space, India’s road transport in the calendar year 2015
AHEAD and highways ministry has brings it at attractive levels
lined up projects worth Rs 500 for longer term investment
billion to be awarded under coupled with stronger
2016 public-private partnership fundamentals amidst weak
mode in FY17.This will be the global economies.
largest chunk of highways
projects to be awarded by Technical Outlook: January
Strong macro- the ministry under the PPP
mode in a single financial The current price action on the monthly
economic year. Furthermore, with chart has formed a candlestick pattern
that resembles a high wave ‘’Doji‘’ pattern
fundamentals considerable improvement where prices have closed near the high
and large in fuel availability in India, range of the candle. This suggests that the
the power supply position, as down move is losing breath.
well as power prices, eased In coming month if Nifty trades and close
order book considerably during 2015. above 8029 level then it is likely to test
8154 – 8279 - 8425 levels. However, if Nifty
Global forecasts from Japan trades and closes below 7863 level then it
to Europe expect La Nina- a can test 7738 – 7613 - 7468 levels.
On the macro- economic front, phenomenon associated with
India’s current account deficit stronger monsoons across Broadly, the monthly trend is
narrowed to 1.6% of GDP at Asia- to hold sway in 2016. down. However, only a monthly
$8.2 bln in Q2, FY16, mainly That could be good news for close below 7600 level would
due to lower trade deficit. India, which is suffering from resume the downtrend. Hence
However, India’s balance two consecutive drought 7600 level is a make or break level.
of payments (BoP) turned years.
negative during Q2, FY16 after Global sovereign, pension 5 ARIHANT CAPITAL ¡ JANUARY 2016
a gap of seven quarters. The funds will be permitted to
country witnessed $0.86 bln invest in NIIF, making India
depletion of reserve assets, as very attractive destination for
per the data released by the longer term investment. The
RBI. This was due to the FII 4% correction in Nifty in the
outflow of $6.5 bln during Q2, calendar year 2015 brings it
FY16. at attractive levels for longer
Nevertheless, the Financial term investment coupled with
Stability report released by the stronger fundamentals amidst
RBI pointed to relative stability weak global economies. We
in India’s financial system suggest investors to invest in
supported by its relatively fundamentally good stocks
strong macroeconomic at low levels for long-term
fundamentals. Loans & perspective.
deposits grew by 11% (y-o-y).
